
^C{Beyond 1993}
^Cby Sean Golden

Okay, so it's not "Beyond 2000" but then I don't have a Hollywood budget either.

Here is where I stick my neck out by "predicting" what you will see in 1994 (at least in the consumer electronics market).  There have been many exciting products introduced in 1993 that should find a real market next year.

Yes, the "{Newton}" is one of those products, even though it has been taking a beating in the press, even by Garry Trudeau (or as I like to call him, "Mr. Jane Pauly") my one-time favorite cartoonist.  But don't be mislead by these early reviews.  The Newton technology is simply too powerful to be bypassed by an otherwise short-sighted industry.  By the end of 1994 Newton technology will be everywhere.

But what else will be hot?  How about a combination fax machine-modem-copier-scanner-laser printer?  Yes, it's true.  The technology in all of these items is very much interconnected and should be incorporated into one product.  Many of the more jaded industry observers believe the technology for this device has existed for years, but that manufacturers have purposely avoided building them because they want you to buy four machines instead of one.  No matter what, look for dramatic price reductions in high-quality {color} printers.

And what's the deal with these AT&T ads?  "You will be."  That's what they say in the ads!  Wait a minute!  Isn't that what Yoda told Luke Skywalker when Luke said, "I'm not scared"?  Each of the ads shows a futuristic setting and then asks some question like "Have you ever attended a meeting in your bare feet?"  (I have...)  Of course, the ads give tantalizing glimpses of products that exist today only in cyberpunk technothrillers.  The common thread in these ads seems to be a sort of marriage between computer technology and telephone technology.  Devices which look like today's laptop computers show windows with real-time video teleconferencing and imply that the computer is relaying the voice and image of each user to the other's "computer."  Video phones built into laptop computers?  In 1994?  Hey, don't be surprised.

How about voice recognition technology?  This is something that has been "five years away" for twenty years.  In other words, it is one of the "holy grails" of computerdom.  Guess what.  It's here.  Now.  Next year it will be improved, enhanced and (hopefully) perfected.  Computers with built-in voice recognition will become fairly common by this time next year.

What about the new processors?  The {Pentium} has the early lead and has all of Intel's mighty marketing machinery behind it.  Unfortunately it also has some pesky shipping delays to deal with.  Meanwhile, the {PowerPC} chips have quietly begun to enter the consumer market.  IBM and Motorola may counterattack with a media blitz of their own next year.  Will the next generation of "standard" PCs have the Pentium or the PowerPC chip?  Don't bet the farm on it either way right now.

Overall, 1994 looks like a banner year for computers.  As the ten-year anniversary of the Macintosh, you can expect real fireworks from Apple Computer.  With the release of the Pentium and the PowerPC, you can expect yet another ten-fold increase in computer power.  With the increasingly competitive home consumer market, you can expect to see even lower prices for more powerful computers.  All in all, 1994 looks like it may be the breakthrough year that PC manufacturers have been looking for since 1978, when two young dreamers cobbled together their first computer in a California garage.  I can't wait.

-Sean Golden, Product Manager